ZAGREB, Jan. 27 (Xinhua) -- The transatlantic alliance between Europe and the United States is heading toward a period of uncertainty, according to Marinko Ogorec, a Croatian political and military analyst, in an interview with Xinhua on Monday.
Ogorec noted that America's approach to its European allies is shifting significantly from a traditional political alliance to a more transactional relationship, driven by U.S. interests and benefits. "(President Donald) Trump's policy centers around what the U.S. can gain, making the Europe-U.S. alliance more commercial than political," Ogorec explained.
For Trump, traditional alliances no longer held the same value as they did under previous U.S. administrations. This transformation, Ogorec argued, could have profound implications for the future of the Europe-U.S. alliance, NATO's stability, and Europe's defense policy.
Ogorec was a former director of the Department of Defence Systems and Technologies at the Croatian Ministry of Defence and a professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Velika Gorica, Croatia.
He pointed out that Trump's administration repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs on Europe and frequently criticized NATO. The U.S. president's remarks accusing European NATO members of not contributing their fair share of the alliance's funding underscored his belief that NATO's current structure no longer aligned with U.S. interests. This stance, Ogorec suggested, signaled that the longstanding American security umbrella over Europe could no longer be taken for granted.
"NATO member countries will face dilemmas, doubts, and financial burdens that many have not previously accounted for," Ogorec said. He added that European nations would be compelled to allocate more resources to defense, increasing their financial commitments, which could be especially challenging given the sluggish economic growth in Europe in recent years.
Ogorec argued that Trump's threats have already sparked discussions among European leaders about rethinking their strategy. "It is time for Europe to consider a more independent path," he said. "If the United States no longer cooperates as before, Europe will need to regroup, rely more on itself, and shoulder a greater share of the burden. This is the only viable path forward."
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a meeting in Paris on Jan. 22 emphasized the need for a stronger and united Europe to address emerging global challenges, including the return of Trump to the U.S. presidency. "It's up to the Europeans, and to our two countries, to consolidate a united, strong, and sovereign Europe," Macron said in a joint press conference.
Ogorec also pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the Europe-U.S. alliance beyond Trump's presidency, noting that while his tenure may last only four years, its impact on transatlantic relations could linger. "Although I don't foresee tectonic shifts that could completely destabilize the situation, Europe's security architecture will need to be reorganized," Ogorec warned. ■