BEIRUT, April 2 (Xinhua) -- A 20 percent rise in global food prices could drive an additional 5 million people into food insecurity across Arab middle- and low-income countries, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) warned in a policy brief released on Thursday.
The risk is immediate and growing, particularly for fragile, conflict-affected countries with limited fiscal space and heavy dependence on food imports, the report said.
Titled "Conflict and its shockwaves: escalating impacts and risks for energy, water and food systems in the Arab region," the brief said the escalating conflict is causing major and interconnected shocks to energy, water, and food systems across the region.
It said that energy trade disruptions are the most immediate macroeconomic shock. Gulf hydrocarbon exports have fallen by 75 to 90 percent since the U.S.-Israel-Iran war began, and oil prices have surged above 112 U.S. dollars per barrel due to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruptions are driving inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and increasing transport and insurance costs across the region.
The brief warned that water security is also at risk. Nearly 40 million people in Gulf Cooperation Council countries depend on desalinated water from the Gulf, making them vulnerable to damage to energy or desalination infrastructure, as well as marine pollution resulting from the conflict.
Acting Executive Secretary of ESCWA Mourad Wahba called for "urgent and coordinated regional action," including early warning systems, strategic reserves, diversified trade corridors, and investment in resilient energy, water and food systems.
Food supplies in the region are already under strain. The report said that the Arab region imports most of its cereals, while reserves covering just over three months of consumption in recent years. Rising fuel prices, disrupted shipping routes, and higher fertilizer costs are expected to further drive up food prices and production costs, hitting low-income households hardest.
"Without swift intervention, the compounding effects of conflict could deepen poverty, fuel social unrest in fragile countries and reverse progress towards sustainable development across the Arab region," Wahba warned. ■
