KIGALI, March 19 (Xinhua) -- Rwanda's economy is projected to sustain strong growth, with forecasts indicating a 7 percent expansion in both 2025 and 2026, driven primarily by services, industry and agriculture sectors, the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) said Wednesday.
However, the country faces potential challenges from extreme weather patterns, which could significantly impact agricultural output.
BNR Governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye made the remarks during a Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Financial Stability Committee briefing in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda. "Rwanda's economy has maintained strong growth. In 2024, real GDP growth averaged 9.2 percent in the first three quarters," she said.
However, "extreme weather patterns present a downside risk, potentially constraining agricultural sector performance," she added.
Inflation is expected to stabilize at 6.5 percent in 2025 before declining to 4.1 percent in 2026, she noted. However, she noted that "upside risks to the inflation outlook remain, including rising geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions that could affect future agricultural production and food prices."
The BNR remains committed to maintaining inflation within its target range of 2 to 8 percent and will continue to monitor macroeconomic trends closely, she added.
Rwanda's financial sector has demonstrated resilience, with total financial sector assets growing by 20.6 percent, according to the BNR.
"With the support of a favorable macroeconomic outlook, the financial system is expected to remain resilient, with systemic risks to financial stability well contained despite global uncertainties," Hakuziyaremye said.
External trade also showed improvement, with merchandise exports rising 6.9 percent in 2024 to 1.69 billion U.S. dollars, driven by strong performance in domestic manufacturing and traditional exports like minerals and tea. However, imports increased by 5.8 percent, widening the trade deficit to 2.86 billion dollars.
On the monetary policy front, the MPC cut the central bank rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in May and August 2024, lowering it to 6.5 percent, and maintained this rate in subsequent meetings. This contributed to a decline in the interbank rate, while deposit rates saw a slight increase. ■
