by Hummam Sheikh Ali
DAMASCUS, Jan. 27 (Xinhua) -- Since the sudden downfall of Bashar al-Assad's government 50 days ago, Syria's transitional administration has been grappling with multiple challenges -- from surging violence to staggering economic instability.
SURGING VIOLENCE
The Britain-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on Sunday a worrisome rise in assassination and reprisal crimes since the start of 2025.
Some 190 people have been killed in at least 91 violent incidents out of political or sectarian motives. Provinces like Homs, Hama and Latakia -- traditional strongholds of the Shiite and Alawite minorities -- have seen some of the worst incidents.
SOHR Director Rami Abdul Rahman warned that "undisciplined groups" who joined the new Military Operations Administration are behind most of this violence, conducting what he described as acts of "revenge, not true justice."
Officials in Homs, including Governor Abed al-Rahman al-Ama and Police Chief Ubada Arnaout, have pledged to restore order, but surging sectarian killings show that national unity remains fragile.
Another flashpoint lies in northern and eastern Syria. Following Assad's downfall, heightening tension between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Türkiye-backed rebels has prompted both sides to vie for territorial gains, according to the SOHR and reports emerging from that part of the country.
Key areas like Manbij in the countryside of Aleppo province have become battlefields, while civilians, caught in the crossfire, face displacement and an uncertain future.
ECONOMIC DEVASTATION, WESTERN SANCTIONS
In a recent report, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) highlighted the extent of Syria's economic collapse: its GDP has contracted by an estimated 64 percent due to prolonged conflict, sanctions and infrastructure destruction. Millions remain displaced while skyrocketing inflation deals a crippling blow to people's living standards.
ESCWA outlined three scenarios for Syria's future. A "stabilized transition" promises inclusive governance, robust reconstruction and comprehensive support from the international community. The alternative scenarios -- "prolonged instability" or "war and fragmentation" -- paint a far grimmer picture, involving sustained poverty, escalating humanitarian crises and the possibility of renewed violence.
The new leadership has vowed to rebuild schools, hospitals and energy facilities. However, whether it can secure the necessary investments and negotiate sanctions relief remains uncertain, partly due to Western sanctions originally aimed at Assad.
Officials have pleaded with global powers to ease or lift these sanctions, which they argue primarily hurt ordinary Syrians, limit access to vital resources, and deter foreign investors who might otherwise help fund reconstruction.
UN Special Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen has joined the call for sanctions relief, deeming it essential to enable Syria's economic recovery. However, U.S. and European officials remain cautious, signaling they require clear evidence of political reforms before considering major policy shifts.
UNIFYING ARMED FACTIONS
Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said he has met with over 70 factions from various regions of the country, and all of them have expressed their willingness to integrate under the Ministry of Defense, which will "place each commander in the appropriate position."
However, armed factions in southern Syria are still holding onto their weapons, despite the call to dissolve armed groups and form a national army representing "new Syria."
Additionally, the SDF is still negotiating with the new leadership in Damascus about their future integration into the new Syrian army, with no decision taken so far amid ongoing clashes in northern Syria.
Armed Druze fighters in the southern province of Sweida have refused to hand over their weapons, apparently awaiting the formation of a new government in Syria that was promised to be formed in three months following the downfall of Assad.
WHAT LIES AHEAD
These issues underscore the monumental task facing Syria's transitional leadership. Sectarian violence threatens stability, while the economy struggles under the pressure of conflict and sanctions. Fighting in the northeast illustrates the potential for broader regional turmoil, and attempts to unify disparate armed factions remain incomplete.
At the same time, officials cling to optimism that a "stabilized transition" -- the best-case scenario set out by the ESCWA -- can still be achieved if the right mix of internal reforms, inclusive governance and international support aligns.
Whether the administration can forge consensus among rival groups, attract foreign investment, and deliver tangible improvements in daily life will determine whether Syria can truly emerge from its prolonged crisis. ■
