BAGHDAD, June 24 (Xinhua) -- The decision by Iraq's prominent Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Sadrist Movement, to quit the parliament has dramatically altered the country's political landscape, casting a shadow over the already stalled government formation process, said political analysts.
On Thursday, 64 new lawmakers were sworn in to fill most of the vacancies in the parliament left by the resignations of 73 lawmakers of the Sadrist Movement on June 12. Under the Iraqi law, the vacant seats should be filled by those obtained the second highest votes in their electoral districts.
In a written statement, Al-Sadr called on his bloc's lawmakers to resign in order to "save the political process from an unknown fate." The withdrawal made al-Sadr's opponents from the Coordination Framework, an umbrella group of Shiite parties, the majority with around 122 seats.
"Al-Sadr withdrawal was a great shock to the political parties and the Shiite community as well, as he had been expected to bring about a major reform," Nadhum Ali Abdullah, an expert at the Arab Forum for Political Analysis, told Xinhua.
Abdullah said al-Sadr is seeking comprehensive reforms in the political process in response to months of protests against corruption, mismanagement, and lack of public services after about 19 years of rule by Shiite parties.
Iraq has gone through an eight-month political impasse over the formation of a new government since the Oct. 10 parliamentary elections last year. Although the biggest winner, al-Sadr was unable to persuade his followers in the parliament into forming a majority government.
The Iraqi constitution stipulates that a two-thirds quorum is needed in the 329-seat parliament to elect a new president and name a prime minister.
Al-Sadr's internal pro-Iran rivals in the Shiite community and some other parties opposed his proposal and wanted to form a consensus government to include all political blocs, as in the case of all successive governments since 2003.
Al-Sadr's insistence on forming a majority government was meant to isolate the traditional leading Shiite parties accused of corruption and mismanagement. But his opponents in the parliament were able to prevent him from forming a majority government.
"Al-Sadr's withdrawal is a message to rival Shiite parties: you may form a government without me, but it will not last for long because it cannot implement comprehensive reforms that the people are waiting for. Instead, the Shiite parties, some of which own armed militias, will plunge into a power struggle," Abdullah added.
The resignations of the Sadrist lawmakers will likely bring more instability in the coming phase, especially after al-Sadr rejected the mediation between him and his rivals.
"No mediation means that al-Sadr intends to drag his rivals to the brink by letting them form a government to face the street directly, which he can mobilize due to the Sadrist popular presence in the Shiite community. In addition to the lack of electricity and other public services in the scorching summer, it will add fuel to the fire," Abdullah added.
Al-Sadr's withdrawal changed the political equation in Iraq in favor of al-Sadr's rivals from the Coordination Framework led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law and Hadi al-Ameri, head of the al-Fateh (Conquest) Alliance, the political wing of some Iran-backed militias within the Hashd Shaabi paramilitary forces.
On Thursday, the parliament held an extraordinary session, during which the new lawmakers took oaths to replace the Sadrist lawmakers.
It is not yet clear what the new sizes of the parliamentary blocs are, after al-Sadr's opponents and their allies filled many of the 73 vacant seats, including the seat of the first deputy speaker.
The replacement of lawmakers would change the map of the political blocs in the parliament. After each bloc knows its new size within the parliament, a new marathon of negotiations will begin soon to form a consensus government without al-Sadr.
Ali al-Musa, an Iraqi political analyst, told Xinhua that al-Sadr made his decision to withdraw from the political process after he found himself facing three options: forming a government without the Sadrists, letting the caretaker government of Mustafa al-Kadhimi to continue for longer time, and holding early election again, which would need a long time of preparations.
"Al-Sadr preferred the first option, of forming a government without him, to end the political stalemate that has been going on for months. But he knows that the key of the door is in his pocket as long as he can mobilize the street at any time," al-Musa said.
Al-Sadr and his followers are following closely the political developments in Iraq, as they realize that "the game is not over," al-Musa added. ■
